Understanding
Poker Odds
Probability is a huge factor in texas hold 'em as
like it is in most card games. Players use odds to determine their
actions and even predict the moves of their opponents. The chances
of finishing a flush or a straight or the probability of matching
your cards for a pair, three of a kind, and so on can be very
useful. Knowledge of these statistics can help you make the
statistically right decision, and by doing so you insure yourself
victory in the long run. Remember you are playing against people and
not the house, every bit of knowledge gives you leverage in beating
your opponent. Online poker needs to use these statistics even more
because the tells that other players give are very slim and not at
all the same to playing in house games. In online poker statistical
knowledge becomes the main factor when choosing whether to bet,
call, or fold.
Outs- The number of cards left in the
deck that will improve your hand.
Example: You have
9 and 10 of hearts as your cards. Then comes on the flop Ace of
hearts, 6 of spades, and 3 of hearts. You now need 1 heart to make
the hand you think will win the hand (a flush). What’s the chance of
getting a heart on the next card (the turn)? You see 4 hearts now
(there are 13 of each suit) so you assume there are 9 left in the
deck that could complete your hand. Those 9 cards represent your
outs, you have 9 outs.
Pot Odds- The odds you
get when analyzing the current size of the pot verse your next call
or raise.
Example: You have
the same hand as above and you need one heart to make your flush.
The turn comes and it was the 5 of spades, so your only hope is the
one card on the river. You have a 9 out of 46 (cards you haven’t
seen) chance to hit your flush from your knowledge. If the pot is
$100 and it costs $10 to call and stay in the hand should you do it,
are the odds in your favor? The answer is yes. You have
approximately a 19% to hit your flush on the river, which is more
than the 10% you have to pay; it is in your favor.
Bet Odds- The odds you get as a result of
evaluating the number of people to call a raise after you, thus
making it worth the call.
Example: Let’s
take the exact same situation above and change it a bit. Still need
one heart to make your flush on the river. You have a 19% chance to
hit but this time you have to match a $20 call on a $100 pot (20%
chance). With just pot odds alone you do not have the statistics to
call the bet. Bet Odds comes in if there are still a lot more people
to act after you, and you are sure at least one of them will call
the bet too. If you know one player will call the bet too, the odds
are now in your favor because the pot has just increased. Instead of
needing a 20% chance to hit to make the call, now you only need a
16.5% chance to hit to make the call.
Implied Odds- The odds
you are getting after you assume that other players will stay in for
the remainder of the hand and add more to the pot.
Example: You have
10 of spades and Jack of spades and limp in. The flop comes and is
Queen of spades 3 of spades and King of hearts. You currently don’t
have a hand, and one of your opponents makes a big bet. Now you are
sure he has a good hand, probably the best one at the table right
now, so you check your outs. There are 9 outs for the flush and 8
outs for the straight, a total of 17 outs in total (actually in this
case you have 15 outs, because you don't count the 9 and ace of
spades twice). You might call the large bet because of implied odds
(semi bluffing), knowing if you hit your
hand then you could get your opponent all-in into the pot and win
it. Thus making the call will yield you huge results if you make the
hand.
Remember it is important to know your opponents when you are playing
because it helps with Bet Odds and Implied Odds. Also it is very
important to understand that once you put money in the pot it is
NO LONGER YOURS. Never make calls because half of the giant pot
was contributed by you, this will lead to you making poor decisions
and losing even more money.
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